- Apple plans to expand in generative AI and reportedly launch more hardware products in 2025.
- Apple Intelligence software is still expected to drive a super cycle in iPhone sales.
- It faces competition in mixed reality and potential tariffs affecting Chinese sales and production.
Timing is everything for Apple going into 2025.
Apple's stage is set for the new year, with big plans for expansion in generative AI, reports of a home device lineup launching soon, and talks of a more affordable iPhone in the pipeline.
The "biggest story" for 2025 will be the impact of the new Apple Intelligence software on iPhone sales, Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said. Apple was criticized for being late to the game when it came to introducing its own generative AI, but the hype around Apple Intelligence has some expecting a "super cycle."
And iPhone sales will have "more aggressive expectations" in 2025 after analysts adjusted their hype around iPhone 16 demand in the final months of 2024, William Kerwin, tech analyst at Morningstar, said.
"We expect Apple will ship more than 240 million iPhones in 2025, breaking its annual record," Wedbush Securities analysts wrote in their 2025 tech wish list.
To do that, though, Munster says Apple will have to figure out how to get Apple Intelligence onto all eligible iPhones. In Greater China, it will have to partner with a local tech company and adhere to the rules to bring AI to Chinese iPhones.
It's a move that Apple is discussing with Tencent and ByteDance, according to Reuters. Apple Intelligence will roll out to iPhone users in the European Union in April, Apple said on its website.
Meanwhile, its competition isn't slowing down. There's pressure to produce "more affordable mixed reality devices while maintaining its slim smartphone market share lead over Samsung," Jacob Bourne, tech analyst at Business Insider sister company EMARKETER, said.
Outside the iPhone, the $3,500 Apple Vision Pro launched to great fanfare but faced low demand in 2024. Meanwhile, Meta saw its (cheaper) AI-powered smart Ray-Ban glasses gain popularity.
Munster predicts that Apple will ditch the Vision Pro in favor of a form factor more like smart glasses.
Then there's the pressure in China — a key region for sales and production for Apple. Donald Trump will be sworn in as president in January, and he's been threatening a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
The company reportedly relies on China for production of 95% of its iPhones, AirPods, Macs, and iPads. If Trump makes good on his tariff promise, Apple could face retaliatory levies affecting its sales in the country.
Apple's legal battles will continue into 2025. The federal judge presiding over its antitrust lawsuit from the US Department of Justice said he hopes to decide whether or not the case will go to trial by January, Bloomberg reported.
Apple didn't immediately respond to a request for comment by Business Insider.
The tech giant has had an eventful 2024, including its new iPhone launches and the introduction of AI. There are further reports of tech devices that could come out in 2025, including smart home products and a cheaper iPhone. Bloomberg reported that a new version of the iPhone SE could be released in 2025, bringing Apple Intelligence to a more affordable smartphone than the iPhone 16.
Bloomberg reported in November that there's a wall-mounted smart home tablet in Apple's production lineup that could use Apple Intelligence, operate home appliances, and access Apple apps. It could be announced as early as March, according to the report.
Expectations are high for Apple in 2025. It made smart moves by partnering with OpenAI and bringing its own AI on iPhones, but analysts say the true payoff of its bets in 2024 is still to come.
"Apple needs to carefully time — and price — new products and features to align with consumer demand rather than just technological capability," EMARKETER's Bourne said.